Chinese influence in the Middle East is challenged by a historic détente between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
China Mediates Historic Peace Agreement Between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Cementing Its Influence in the Middle East
China has unexpectedly mediated a historic peace agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, disproving the notion that the US rules the Middle East.
Given China's expanding influence in the area and the limitations of American diplomacy, the declaration of the two countries reestablished diplomatic relations on Friday was unexpected but not surprising.
By brokering the agreement, China's leader, Xi Jinping, who
has a similar leadership style to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi
Arabia, has been able to defuse tensions between the two nations and cement his
energy choices. The fact that the US was unable to do what China has done
illustrates the nuanced nature of everything that has been simmering for the
past 20 years.
Given that China purchases more oil from Saudi Arabia than
any other nation in the world, China's assertion that it "pursues no
selfish interest whatsoever in the Middle East" is false. For China's
economy to expand, domestic stability to be maintained, and the country's march
to global prominence, Xi needs energy. Its supplies are in doubt since Russia,
China's other major supplier, is at war. Xi is not only strengthening up his
energy choices but also averting potential restrictions on his access to Gulf
oil by defusing tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Iran has agreed because China has financial clout. In
exchange for a consistent supply of Iranian oil, the two nations agreed to a
trade agreement in 2021 that could be worth up to $400 billion in Chinese
investment over a 25-year period. International sanctions have isolated Iran,
and Beijing is offering a small financial reprieve. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile,
has bought into the plan since a confrontation with Iran would devastate the
country's economy and MBS's bid for regional hegemony.
In spite of this, the US State Department applauded the
unexpected action, saying that "we encourage anything that would aid to
deescalate tensions in the region and perhaps help to avert violence." The
strengthening of diplomatic links between Saudi Arabia and Iran is a serious
setback for American influence in the region. President Joseph Biden said
during a trip to Saudi Arabia in July that "we will not walk away and
leave a vacuum to be filled by China, Russia, or Iran," but it now appears
that others are breaking that promise.
China is increasing its presence in the Middle East, making
its own requirements known and seizing the chance to take action. Being a
recognised risk-taker, Chinese President Xi Jinping's recent participation in
the area is indicative of this. Although China has long had an interest in the
Middle East, its increasing presence and investment there are having broader
effects on the world order.
After abandoning his home "zero-Covid" policy, Xi
made his first high-profile abroad trip to Saudi Arabia in December 2022. The
Jizan infrastructure project, a component of China's belt and road strategy,
received particular focus during the trip as Saudi and Chinese officials inked
dozens of agreements totaling tens of billions of dollars.
The Jizan project announces significant investment in the
area of the historic Red Sea port, which is now Saudi Arabia's third-largest
port and is located near to Yemen's border, the scene of a violent civil war
and proxy conflict between Riyadh and Iran since 2014. Notably, since Xi's
visit, the Houthi rebels who get support from Iran have stopped attacking Jizan
on occasion.
Commercial reasons are what motivate China's interest in the
Middle East, and Beijing is well aware of the potential costs of a protracted
conflict over the Persian Gulf. Another reason for a Saudi-Iran reconciliation
appeal to Xi is that Iran is getting closer to developing nuclear weapons, and
Saudi Crown Prince MBS has pledged to assure parity.
American sources stated late last week that Saudi Arabia
wanted US security assurances and assistance.
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